Where Moneyball meets addiction counseling

A startup here in St. Louis is trying to marry the analytics of the web with the practice of addiction counseling and psychotherapy. In doing so, they are trying to bring the methods of Moneyball to improve therapeutic outcomes. It is an interesting idea, to be sure.

The firm is called Takoda, and it is the work of several people: David Patterson Silver Wolf, an academic researcher; Ken Zheng, their business manager; Josh Fischer, their co-founder and CTO; and Jake Webb, their web developer. I spoke to Fischer who works full time for Bayer, and supports Takoda on his own time as they bootstrap the venture. “It is hard to put all the various pieces together in a single company, which is probably why no one else has tried to do this before,” he told me recently.

The idea is to measure therapists based on patient performance during treatment, just like Moneyball measured runs delivered by each baseball player as their performance measurement. But unlike baseball, there is no single metric that everyone has created, certainly not as obvious as RBIs or homers.

We are at a unique time in the healthcare industrial complex today. Everyone has multiple electronic health records that are stored in vast digital coffins; so named because this is where data usually goes to die. Even if we see mostly doctors in a single practice group, chances are our electronic medical records are stored in various data silos all over the place, without the ability to link them together in any meaningful fashion.

On top of this, the vast majority of therapists have their own paper-based data coffins: file cabinets full of treatment notes that are rarely consulted again. Takoda is trying to open these repositories, without breaching any patient data privacy or HIPAA regulations.

Part of the problem is that when someone seeks treatment, they don’t necessary learn how to get better or move beyond their addiction issues while they are in their therapist’s office. They have to do this on their own time, interacting with their families and friends, in their own communities and environment.

Another part of the problem is in how we select a therapist to see for the first time. Often, we get a personal referral, or else we hear about a particular office practice. When we walk in the door, we are usually assigned a therapist based on who is “up” – meaning the next person who has the lightest caseload or who is free at that particular moment when a patient walks in the door. This is how many retail sales operations work. The sole design criterion was to evenly distribute leads and potential customers. That is a bad idea and I will get to why in a moment.

Finally, the therapy industry uses two modalities that tend to make success difficult. One is that “good enough” is acceptable, rather than pursuing true excellence or curing a patient’s problem. When we seek medical care for something physically wrong with us, we can find the best surgeon, the best cardiologist, the best whatever. We look at their education, their experience, and so forth. Patients don’t have any way to do this when they seek counseling. The other issue is that therapists aren’t necessarily rewarded for excellence, and often practices let a lot of mediocre treatment slide. Both aren’t optimal, to be sure.

So along comes Takoda, who is trying to change how care is delivered, how success is measured, and whether we can match the right therapists to the patients to have the best treatment outcomes. That is a tall order, to be sure.

Takoda put together its analytics software and began building its product about a year ago. First they thought they could create something that is an add-on to the electronic health systems already in use, but quickly realized that wasn’t going to be possible. They decided to work with a local clinic here. The clinic agreed to be a proving ground for the technology and see if their methods work. They picked this clinic for geographic convenience (since the principals of the firm are also here in St. Louis) and because they already see numerous patients who are motivated to try to resolve their addiction issues. Also, the clinic accepts insurance payments. (Many therapists don’t deal with insurers at all.) They wanted insurers involved because many of them are moving in the direction of paying for therapy only if the provider can measure and show patient progress. While many insurers will pay for treatment, regardless of result, that is evolving. Finally, the company recognized that opioid abuse has slammed the therapy world, making treatment more difficult and challenging existing practices, so the industry is ripe for a change. Takoda recognizes that this is a niche market, but they had to start somewhere. “So we are going to reinvent this industry from the ground up,” said Fischer.

So what does their system do? First off, it uses research to better match patients with therapists, rather than leave this to chance or the “ups” system that has been used for decades. Research has shown that matching gender and race between the two can help or hurt treatment outcomes, using very rough success measures.

Second, it builds in some pretty clever stuff, such as using your smartphone to create geofences around potentially risky locations for each individual patient, and providing a warning signal to encourage the patient to steer clear of these locations.

Finally, their system will “allow practice offices to see how their therapists are performing and look carefully at the demographics,” said Fischer. “We have to change the dynamic of how therapy care is being done and how therapists are rated, to better inform patients.”

It is too early to tell if Takoda will succeed or not, but if they do, the potential benefits are clear. Just like in Moneyball, where a poorly-performing team won more games, they hope to see a transformation in the therapy world with a lot more patient “wins” too.

The rise of the online ticketing bots

A new report describes the depth of criminality across online ticketing websites. I guess I was somewhat naive before I read the report, “How Bots affect ticketing,” from Distil Networks. (Registration is required.) The vendor sells anti-bot security tools, so some of what they describe is self-serving to promote their own solutions. But the picture they present is chilling and somewhat depressing.

The ticketing sites are being hit from all sides: from dishonest ticket brokers and hospitality agents who scrape details and scalp or spin the tickets, to criminals who focus on fan account takeovers to conduct credit card fraud with their ticket purchases. These scams are happening 24/7, because the bots never sleep. And there are multiple sources of ready-made bad bots that can be set loose on any ticketing platform.

You probably know what scalping is, but spinning was new to me. Basically, it involves a mechanism that appears to be an indecisive human who is selecting tickets but holding them in their cart and not paying for them. This puts the tickets in limbo, and takes them off the active marketplace just long enough that the criminals can manipulate their supply and prevent the actual people from buying them. That is what lies at the heart of the criminal ticketing bot problem: the real folks are denied their purchases, and sometimes all seats are snapped up within a few milliseconds of when they are put on sale. In many cases, fans quickly abandon the legit ticketing site and find a secondary market for their seats, which may be where the criminals want them to go. This is because the seat prices are marked up, with more profit going to the criminals. It also messes with the ticketing site’s pricing algorithms, because they don’t have an accurate picture of ticket supply.

This is new report from Distil and focusing just on the ticketing vendors. In the past year, they have seen a rise in the sophistication of the bot owners’ methods. That is because like much with cybercrime, there is an arms race between defenders and the criminals, with each upping their game to get around the other. The report studied 180 different ticketing sites for a period of 105 days last fall, analyzing more than 26 billion requests.

Distil found that the average traffic across all 180 sites was close to 40% consumed by bad bots. That’s the average: many sites had far higher percentages of bad bot traffic. (See the graphic above for more details.)

Botnets aren’t only a problem with ticketing websites, of course. In an article that I wrote recently for CSOonline, I discuss how criminals have manipulated online surveys and polls. (Registration also required.) Botnets are just one of many methods to fudge the results, infect survey participants with malware, and manipulate public opinion.

So what can a ticketing site operator do to fight back? The report has several suggestions, including preventing outdated browser versions, using better Captchas, blocking known hosting providers popular with criminals, and looking carefully at sources of traffic for high bounce rates, a series of failed logins and lower conversion rates, three tells that indicate botnets.

FIR B2B Podcast #116: If AI is Becoming So Good, Why Are We Still Counting Clicks?

In this fast-paced episode my podcasting partner Paul Gillin and I offer five different news stories that bracket the B2B marketing world. First up is this piece about neural storytelling and how AI is attempting to create content with machine learning algorithms. This kind of technology has some important implications and not because it promises to replace humans. In the news recently is this story about the OpenAI text generator called GPT2. Its creators were afraid that its work could generate spam and fake news so effectively that they’ve chosen not to release the full-strength version to developers. That’s either a little unsettling or a great PR stunt.

Next is a story about how clicks are an “unreliable seismograph” for a news article’s value, combined with new research to back up that conclusion. We all seek out stories that amuse and entertain us, but a good news site contains a nice mix of the serious and the bizarre. As serious readers, we need to seek out stories of civic value, not just the latest celebrity clickbait. The article, which was prepared by Neiman Lab, also notes that the word “personalization” has become a big negative, because folks think this means “ads will follow your browsing forever” rather than customizing content for a reader’s taste and preferences.

We move on to a piece that is almost blindingly obvious, but a great checklist to help marketers understand how to influence the B2B decision-making processIt proposes five simple questions to ask your prospective customers, such as where they start their search for content, what kinds of information they look for and what sites they employ. Answering these questions takes just a few minutes and can be give marketers a useful starting point for a lead-generation campaign.

We also found this piece on Marketing Week that talks about a recent series of decisions by MasterCard to both eliminate text from their logo (as at left)  and use “sonic branding” to help with voice assistants and audio sound-enabled devices. This company is smart is getting ahead of the voice assistant phenomenon and figuring out branding in this new medium.

Speaking of audio, our final piece is a study that suggests that podcast ads outperform TV ads. The study found that the two are equivalent in terms of being memorable and resonating with audiences. Podcast advertising can be particularly effective when the host lends legitimacy by giving a personal pitch for the product, which is becoming the norm in that medium.

You can listen to our 14 and a half minute podcast here:

The Huawei telecom ban makes no sense

Color me confused about our 5G technology policy. Today I see this statement: “I want 5G, and even 6G, technology in the United States as soon as possible. It is far more powerful, faster, and smarter than the current standard. American companies must step up their efforts, or get left behind. I want the United States to win through competition, not by blocking out currently more advanced technologies.” That is from a recent set of tweets from our president. He is expected to sign an executive order banning Huawei equipment from domestic cellular carriers before next week. Not to be outdone, Congress is considering HR 4747 that would prevent government agencies from doing business with them.

Huawei seems to be the latest target of badly behaving tech companies, and it has gotten a lot of enemies. Last week our Secretary of State meet with several European leaders, telling them to not purchase any equipment from Huawei in building out their 5G cellular networks. He told them that this gear will make it more difficult for American equipment to operate there.

The fear is that Chinese will embed spying devices in their gear, interfering with communications. Chinese hacking attempts have dramatically risen over the past year, according to this new report from Crowdstrike. While the report didn’t identify Huawei as the source, they did find several hacking attempts aimed specifically at telecom vendors and their government customers.

The US isn’t alone in its fear of Huawei spying. Poland, Italy and Germany are all considering banning their gear from their newer cell networks. Last year, both South Korea and Australia enacted such a ban, and the UK began removing their equipment too. Huawei supplies Australian and UK 4G equipment and BT said last month that they will begin removing that stuff.  A recent news story in The Register stated that Huawei won’t be used to run any new British government networks, even though it will continue to be used in British landline infrastructure.

But is the Chinese government really using Huawei equipment to spy on us? Jason Perlow writes in ZDnet that chances are low, mainly because first there is no concrete proof, and second because it wouldn’t be in their best economic interests. Also, given that you can find Chinese semiconductors in just about everything these days, it would be nearly impossible to effectively ban them.

But there is another confounding reason that no one has mentioned, and that has to do with this law called CALEA. It spells out requirements for telecom suppliers and how they must provide access to government wiretaps and other law enforcement activities from their gear. So technically, not only is Huawei doing this, but all the other telecom vendors have to do so too. If you are with me so far, you see that Huawei is obligated to have this “backdoor” if they want to do business in the USA, yet we are criticizing them for having this very same backdoor! How this will play out in these bans is hard to realize.

A Huawei ban makes no sense. But it won’t stop government agencies from piling on at this stage.

FIR B2B episode #115: Social Media Adoption Over the Years – the Latest from the Annual UMass Survey

Nora Ganim Barnes, Chancellor Professor of Marketing and Director of the Center for Marketing Research at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth.Today Paul Gillin and I talk to Nora Ganim Barnes, Chancellor Professor of Marketing and Director of the Center for Marketing Research at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth, about her latest survey of corporate social media usage. Barnes has been surveying two distinct populations for the past 12 years – the INC 500 and the Fortune 500 – to ascertain what social media platforms they use, how they use them and how they measure results. Her students visit the websites of all 1,000 companies measured and augment the research with telephone interviews.

For the first time in nine years, more F500 are using blogs than the INC 500, and the increase has been substantial in just the past three years (see chart below), jumping from 21% in 2015 to 53% in the most recent survey. Clearly, the largest companies have reclaimed blogging and are using their blogs to tell stories and better craft their marketing messages.

Barnes found that Twitter occupies an odd place in the social media pantheon: it is well used (with 369 out of 500 companies running active accounts), but not considered very effective. Still, companies don’t abandon Twitter, perhaps out of fear of missing out or the possibility that they might need it at some point.

What has also changed is that 56% of INC 500 execs are now doing a better job of listening on social media, tracking online conversations about their brands and products with various monitoring tools. That is a big increase from last year, when it was about half that number.

This year Barnes’ research  found a big concern about privacy, which is probably not surprising given the numerous breaches and missteps by Facebook and others in this area. Privacy was executives’ second biggest concern behind social ROI.

Finally, her survey saw double the firms who have formulated a social media plan from last year.  Although the overall percentage is still less than a quarter of the total, that’s progress.

You can download the UMass surveys at the link above, both the current ones and in year’s past. They are a rich resource that all corporate marketing departments should carefully examine.

You can listen to our 21 min. podcast here:

CSOonline: How online polls are hacked and what you should do about it

The news in January about Michael Cohen’s indictments covers some interesting ground for IT managers and gives security teams something else to worry about: He allegedly paid a big data firm Redfinch Solutions to rig two online polls in then-candidate Donald Trump’s favor. To those of us who have worked with online polls and surveys, this comes as no surprise.

Researchers at RiskIQ found another survey-based scam that involves a complex series of steps that use cloned YouTube identities to eventually get marks to take surveys to redeem their “free” iPhones. Instead, the respondents get malware installed on their computers or phones. Security managers need to up their game and understand both the financial and reputational risks of rigged polls and the exploits that are delivered through them. Then they can improve their protective tools to keep hackers away from their networks and users. In this story for CSOonline, I talk about some of these issues and explain why businesses should use online polls and how to keep your networks safe from bad ones. 

Privacy, transparency, and increasing digital trust

There is a crisis of trust in American democracy.” So begins a new report from the Knight Commission on Trust, Media and Democracy organized by the Aspen Institute. It lays blame on our political discourse, racial tensions, and technology that gives us all more access to more commentary and news. “In 2018, unwelcome facts are labeled as fake.”

Part of the problem with trust has to do with the ease of cyber-criminals to ply their trade. Once relegated to a dark corner of the Internet, now many criminals operate in the public view, selling various pieces of technology such as ready-made phishing kits to seed infections, carders to collect credit card numbers, botnets and web stressors to deliver DDoS attacks, and other malware construction kits that require little to no technical expertise beyond clicking a few buttons on a web form. A new report from CheckPoint shows that anyone who is willing to pay can easily obtain all of these tools. We truly have witnessed the growth of the “Malware-as-a-service” industry.

This week I was in London participating in a forum for the Euro press put on by RSA. I got a chance to interview numerous experts who have spent their careers examining cybercrime and understanding how to combat fraud. It was a somewhat sobering picture, to be sure. At the forum, RSA’s president Rohit Ghai spoke about how the largest facet of risk today is digital risk, and how businesses need to better integrate risk management and cyber security methods. “This is a team sport, and security, IT, operations and risk groups all need to work together,” he said. “Our goal is not just about protecting apps or data, but about protecting our trust assets. We trust strangers to share our homes and cars because tech brings us together and drives the sharing economy.” We need to replace this trust system in the B2B world as Airbnb and Lyft have done for consumer-based businesses.

Ghai agrees with the conclusions of the Knight report that trust is at an all-time low. We have gotten so distrustful of our digital lives that we now have a new acronym, LDL, for let’s discuss live. But we can’t turn back the clock to the analog era: we need trust to fuel our future economic growth. He mentioned that to be trustful, “an ethical company should be doing the right thing, even if no one is looking at them at the time.” I liked that idea: too often we hear about corporations that are polluting our environment, denying any responsibility or worse, covering up the details when they get caught.

Part of the challenge is that cybersecurity is really a business problem, not a failure of technology. This is because “breaches and intrusions will occur,” says Ghai. “We have to move beyond the shame of admitting a data intrusion, and understanding its business impact. Our goal should be maintaining cyber wellness, not trying to totally eradicate threats.” Taking better care of customers’ privacy is also good for business, as numerous reports (such as this one from RSA) have concluded recently. Almost half of the consumers surveyed believe there are ethical ways companies can use their data.

Another issue is that what we say and what we actually do about maintain our digital privacy is often at odds with each other. In a 2017 MIT privacy experiment, they found that student participants would quite readily give up personal data for very small incentives, such as a free pizza. This dichotomy is even seen with IT security pros. A recent survey by Yubico found that more than half of those IT managers who have been phished have still not changed their password behavior. If they don’t change to improve their own security, who will?

The same dichotomy can be said about transparency: sadly, there are few companies who are actually as transparent as they claim, either through willfully misleading the public (Facebook is tops in this regard) or by just doing a poor job of keeping their IT assets under appropriate controls (the City of Atlanta or Equifax are two prime case studies here).

Where do we go from here? Security expert Bruce Schneier says that trust is fragile, and transparency is essential to trust. The Knight report carries a series of recommendations for journalists, technology vendor managers, and ordinary citizens, and I hope we can implement many or all of them to make for a better mutual and trusted future. They include being better at practicing radical transparency, for journalists to disclose information sources as a rule, and making social networks step up and take responsibility for protecting their users. All of us need to work together if we want to turn this around and increase trust.

FIR B2B Podcast #114: Does moral marketing mean wading into politics?

Writing on Brandwatch, CMO Will McInnes says there are three gaps CMOs need to bridge: metrics, moral marketing, and innovation gaps. Understanding each one is essential to being a better marketer. We examine more closely the second one, where the author cites an Edelman study that found that two-thirds of consumers will choose, switch, avoid or boycott a brand based upon its stand on societal issues. Given the amount of polarization in American society right now, marketers should thing twice about wading into political debates. 

Another survey by Annenberg PR Center at USC found that 44% of CEOs said their most important communication goal for 2019 is to sell their products and services while 39% say their primary goal is to differentiate their company’s brand from the competition. Paul and I disagree on whether this is a positive trend or not; CEOs have the power to significantly influence public opinion, but is is fair to their shareholders to exercise that power? 

Finally, we look at a joint study by researchers at Boston University and the University of Georgia that found that only one in ten people can distinguish between sponsored editorial content.  People who mistook the advertisements for legitimate news articles were generally older, less educated and more likely to consume news media for entertainment purposes. We agree that any short-term boost a brand might get by deceiving an audience is negated by the reputation damage of being outed for that deed. However, Paul points out that one factor in the confusion is that branded content is getting better, and marketers should take credit for that fact. 

You can listen to our 14 min. podcast episode here:

Dealing with CEO Phishing Fraud

When we get emails from our CEO or other corporate officers, many of us don’t closely scrutinize their contents. Phishers count on this for their exploits. The messages often come around quitting time, so there is some sense of urgency so we will act before thinking through the consequences. 

Here is an example of a series of emails between “the boss” (in reality, the phisher) and his subordinate that happened in November 2017. You can see the growing sense of urgency to make a funds transfer happen, which is the phisher’s stock in trade. According to FBI statistics, this type of fraud is now a $12 billion scam. And yes, the money was actually sent to this attacker.

KnowBe4, which sells phishing training services, categorizes the scam into two separate actions:

  1. First is the phishing attempt itself. It is usually called spear phishing, meaning that the attacker has studied the corporate organization chart and targeted specific individuals. The attacker has also examined who has fiduciary responsibility to perform the actual funds transfer, because at the heart of this scam it is all about the money that they can steal from your business.
  2. Next is all about social engineering. The attacker has to appear to be convincing and act like the boss. Often, the targeted employee is tricked into divulging confidential information, such as bank accounts or passwords. Many times they use social media sources to amplify their message and make it seem  more legit.

The blog post mentions several different situations that are common with this type of fraud:

  1. Business working with a foreign supplier.
  2. Business receiving or initiating a wire transfer request.
  3. Business contacts receiving fraudulent correspondence.
  4. Executive and attorney impersonations.
  5. Confidential data theft.

A new blog post by Richard DeVere here provides some good suggestions on how to be more vigilant and skeptical with these emails. 

  • Examine the tone and phrasing of the email. One time a very brusque CEO — who was known for this style — supposedly sent a very polite email. The recipient flagged it as a potential phish because of this difference.
  • Have shared authority on money transfers. Two heads are better than one.
  •  As Reagan has said, trust but verify. Ask your boss (perhaps by calling directly) if this email really originated from him or her before acting on it. Phone calls and texts can be spoofed from your boss’ number. As the illustration above shows, this is quite common. Take a moment to process what is being asked of you.
  • Report the scammer to the right authorities inside and outside your company.

The bottom line: be wary and take a breath when you get one of these emails.

FIR B2B podcast #113: How One Former Journalist Crossed the Chasm to Content Marketing

Denise Dubie was a technology journalist for more than a decade before switching to corporate content marketing, and her reportorial instincts have served her well. Denise, who recently took a new job as Director of Content at PureB2B in the Boston area, was previously senior principal of content strategy at CA Technologies and before that a senior editor at Network World. It’s rare to find someone who has had such deep experience on both sides of the business.

We discuss how she made the transition from tech journalism to marketing and the value of her journalism background in her new corporate role. Denise comments on how her work style changed between the two types of jobs and where the greatest adjustments were necessary. We also talk about success metrics she used at CA and the surprisingly little value she found for social media as a promotional channel. 

Denise also provides some practical tips on what listeners can do to improve their content marketing programs. It starts with having a thorough understanding of customers, a topic we harp on frequently in this podcast.